Day 25 - Weather chat - 1st October

Well there has been an awful amount of discussion regarding the weather.
Weather reports come in via email and the internet - unfortunately they do
not always agree. Jamie uses forecasts from West Coast Weather in Washington
USA and I must say these are very comprehensive. Two areas are focused on -
Precipitation (snow) and Wind. Both of these factors are critical to our
success. Imagine trying to predict these for the future for different
heights (6000m, 6500m etc etc)

Here is an example of the type of information we receive:

Summary:
A weak upper level low is dropping down from the north and will bring an
increase in winds and some more clouds over the next several days. However,
this is not a big storm. The next weather issue is one of the forecast
models wants to bring in some precipitation of up to 1 inch (2.54 cm) on
Saturday and or Sunday and we will need to monitor this.

Monsoon.
The monsoon continues to retreat.

Jet Stream.
The jet stream is close K2 region over the next 7 days with just some minor
daily changes. It basically meanders back and forth near the K 2 region with
winds increasing at times to 140 knots (259 km) at the 39,000 foot level
(11,818 meters) near K2.

Precipitation and Clouds.
With a generally southerly flow still clouds moving in and out of the
region. Many of the models have clouds toping out at about 20,000 (6060
meters) but not sure about that. Also most models have no precipitation over
the next 7 days except one puts moderate precipitation for both Saturday and
Sunday.
Amounts for precipitation in water equivalent at 20,000 (6060 meters) there
will less precipitation as one moves towards the summit

Thursday to Friday
Up to .30 inches (up to 0.76 cm) each day. Although current satellite is
showing some clouds moving in so that number for Thursday might be low
Clouds moving in and out of the region.

Saturday to Sunday
Up to .30 inches (up to 0.76 cm) each day. However one model puts up to 1
inch (2.54 cm) for one of the days.
Clouds moving in and out of the region.

Monday to Wednesday
Up to .30 inches (up to 0.76 cm) each day.
Just a few clouds moving in and out of the region.

Wind forecast.
Thursday to Friday
Summit Average 24 to 34 knots (44 km to 63 km) Winds from the west to
southwest.
23,000 (6969 meters) Average 20 to 30 knots (27 to 56 km) from west to
southwest
19,000 (5757 meters) 10 to 20 knots (18.5 km to 37 km) Winds from west to
the southwest
** If the moderate precipitation occurs then we can expect stronger average
wind of up to 42 knots (78 km)

Summit Temperature
-20 C (-4 F)

This forecast is based on computer generated weather data generated from
government agencies that West Coast Weather, LLC. dab Washington Online
Weather deems reliable. However, the weather can change quickly and
unforeseeably, and there are many factors which you should consider in
deciding whether to proceed with an outing, including the visible weather at
the trailhead, the strength and experience of the party, snow and avalanche
conditions, route conditions, etc. You are the final decision maker whether
to proceed. West Coast Weather, LLC dba Washington Online Weather cannot be
held liable for loss or injury arising from your decision to proceed, and
expressly disclaims all liability related thereto.

For further information please contact West Coast Weather, LLC, Redmond,
Washington USA

Finally thanks to the guys at West Coast Weather, LLC for the great
information supplied during this expedition